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Grab Explosive Gains With This Chart Pattern


The Dynamic Wealth Report
October 7, 2009

by Justin Bennett, Editor

In the stock market, we’re constantly looking for opportunities to make money.

When you think about it, every second of every trading day is an opportunity to buy or sell a stock.  You could just buy a stock without doing any research.  Just pick a stock and buy it.  Entering blindly with no plan to take profits or control losses.  The odds of success for this trade would be 50/50, basically the flip of a coin.  In other words, it’s completely random.

Obviously, this is a less than stellar way to invest your hard earned money.  As we touched on in a recent article, you want to have an edge.  An edge is a statistical advantage over the market.

You may ask, “Well, where can I get one of those edges?”

One way is through Technical Analysis (TA).

Let’s start out by saying that TA is the art of analyzing the price patterns of stock charts.  You see, the collective behavior of all the participants in a particular market can be seen by looking at a chart.  These behaviors can form patterns that repeat themselves with statistical reliability.  By searching for these patterns, we can find our edge.

Whew…. that was a mouthful.  Don’t let all that technical language scare you.  I’m going to simplify it so everybody can understand.

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Here’s an example of a recent trade I made…

GLD Chart

This is the StreetTRACKS Gold ETF (GLD).  It’s an ETF tracking the movement of the gold market.  You can buy and sell GLD just like you can a stock.

It’s a great example of a triangle.  Take a look at the trendlines. Notice how the lower trendline comes up and meets the upper trendline, forming two sides of a triangle.

Each time gold sells off between February '09 and September '09 the resulting sell off gets weaker.  Sellers can’t take the price of gold down farther than they did the last time.

Also, each buying spree doesn’t get as high as the last one.  Buyers show less interest as time goes on.  GLD consolidates into a tighter and tighter price range.

A point is reached when the pattern gets wound so tight it explodes out of the triangle.

Take a look at the green circle.  This is exactly what happened in September of this year.

GLD broke out of the triangle and went up 5 points in a matter of days.  The entry for the trade would be the $94.50 area, when GLD broke above the upper trendline.

You would set a stop loss just below the lower trendline around the $91.80 area.  Just in case the breakout failed and GLD fell back down.

I’m still holding this GLD trade for further gains…

Let’s look at a current triangle setup…

DBC Chart

This is the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (DBC).  DBC is a commodity ETF representing important global commodities - crude oil, gold, corn, and wheat to name a few.

We have two trendlines coming together to form two sides of a triangle.  The entry for this trade would be a break above $22.75 on strong volume.  This would take DBC above the upper trendline.  You would set a stop loss at $20.90.  In case the trade doesn’t work, you want to keep your losses small.

The next strong resistance zone in DBC is $24.  You should take profits when it reaches that level.  I suspect DBC will test this level (and higher) if DBC breaks out of the triangle.

So there you have it.  This is just one of the many ways to profit from the markets using Technical Analysis.

By scanning the markets for these patterns, you can find many different ways to capture an “edge”.  By trading with an edge, you can improve your trading results and make more money!


Commodity Watch 

• Gold (Over $1,030 an ounce)

Gold is breaking to new all time highs above $1,030.  However, gold would have to rocket to $2,300 an ounce to beat its inflation adjusted high of $850 back in 1980.  So the question is… Is gold overvalued or under-valued?


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Issue Date:
 Wednesday, October 7, 2009


Notable Highs and Lows

•  Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) hit a new 52-week high of over $22.  The gold and silver miner is riding the precious metal wave.  CDE has a market cap of over $1.5 billion.

•  Diamond Offshore (DO) hit a new 52- week high of just under $98.  The offshore oil and gas drilling contractor just paid $490 million for a new drilling rig.  They obviously think they’re going to be busy in the future. DO has a market cap of over $13 billion.

•  Align Technology (ALGN) hit a new 52- week high of over $16.  The company makes the “nearly invisible” braces for crooked teeth.  ALGN has a market cap of over $1 billion.


Quote of the Day

"Will you look back on life and say, “I wish I had”, or “I’m glad I did”?"

                                -
Zig Ziglar

 
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