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Follow This Trading Rule, Or Else...


The Dynamic Wealth Report
February 24, 2010

by Justin Bennett, Editor

There are a lot of challenges to successful trading, there’s no doubt about it.  Ask any trading professional and they’ll tell you it took years of practice to master their craft.  This may be a surprise to some.

But here’s what’s really surprising.  Even the most astute market professionals are constantly learning.

Why?  Because they have to.

The markets are dynamic and constantly changing.  Relying on old information and strategies can lead to subpar results… or worse.  You have to know which strategies to use in different market conditions.

But there are some rules that never fail...

No matter what the market environment, there are some rules you want to always adhere to.  Rules like cut your losers short and let your winners run.

And there’s another rule I follow time and time again.  I call it the “rule of sound mind”.  Why do I call it that?  It’s simple, if you don’t follow this rule, trading may drive you nuts.

It’s a very simple rule to follow and easy to institute into your trading.

I’ll get to the rule in a minute, but first let me tell you this…

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Successful trading has a lot to do with trade management.  That is, what you do with a trade once you’re position is established.  It’s often the difference between a profit or a loss.  Your results have to do with what the stock does once you buy it.  It could go up, down, or sideways.

As technical traders, we like to enter at a point where we can control downside risk.  We have a reference point if you will.  It may be a support zone, a moving average, or some kind of technical pattern.

If the stock goes against us, we have a point where we’re going to control losses.  If the trade moves in the right direction, it will hit our profit target and possibly go up even more.

But what if this scenario arises…

You enter a trade off of a technical pattern.  It immediately trades in your favor.  You’re showing a profit on the trade.  But then the market reverses before it hits your profit target.  Now, your profits are in question.

Should you keep holding the stock so it can hit your profit target? Should you exit the trade and take what the market gives you?

The answers to those questions are unique to each trader and their system.  Some prefer to hold to see if the trade will eventually hit the profit target.  Others prefer to sell a portion (or all) of the position when the market reverses.

There is no right or wrong way to do it.  Why?  Because the markets are dynamic.  It’s impossible to know exactly what a stock will do next.  All you can do is manage the trade to the best of your ability.

But here’s the “sound mind rule” I believe every technical trader should follow…

Never let a profitable trade turn into a full loss.

What I mean is this… Once a position has moved in your favor, you should trail your stops higher to reduce your risk.  If the trade moves in your favor far enough, you should move your stop to breakeven.

In my opinion, you should trail a stop to breakeven every time the technical pattern you’ve traded has had the intended result.  Even if the trade hasn’t yet hit your profit target…

Allowing a once profitable trade to turn into a full blown loss is very frustrating.  Allowing it to happen over and over will kill your portfolio and your confidence.  (And drive you crazy in the process.)

That’s why I institute the “rule of sound mind” in my trading.  Maybe you should consider it too…

Commodity Watch 

• Wheat (Under $5 a bushel)

The USDA Winter Wheat Seeding report is estimating the 2010 wheat harvest to be around 37 million acres.  That may seem like a lot, but it’s down 14% from 2009 and the lowest since 1913.  The falling numbers are due to wet weather and late row crop harvests.


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Issue Date:
 Wednesday, February 24, 2010


Notable Highs and Lows

•  A. H. Belo (AHC) hit a 52-week high
of over $7.  The newspaper publisher reported fourth quarter earnings this morning.  Their market cap is now over $141 million.

•  P.A.M. Transportation Services (PTSI) hit a new 52-week high of nearly $13.  The trucking company’s fourth quarter results were less than stellar, yet the stock is rocketing higher in recent days.  They have a market cap of just over $121 million.

•  Dollar Tree (DLTR) hit a 52-week high of nearly $54.  The discount variety store recently blew away analyst estimates for the fourth quarter.  Their market cap is now nearly $5 billion.


Quote of the Day

"It is hard to fail, but it is worse never
to have tried to succeed."

                       -
Theodore Roosevelt

 
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