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Another Tool For Your Trading Toolbox


The Dynamic Wealth Report
February 3, 2010

by Justin Bennett, Editor

A couple of weeks ago we spoke about the hammer.  The hammer is a one day technical pattern producing low risk trades in certain situations.

Here’s another basic tool that works well in trading…

It’s called the wedge.  Many of you know that a wedge is a tool used by humans for many millennia.  It allows for the splitting or lifting of objects.  The wedge gives the user a mechanical advantage.

In trading, a wedge is a technical trading pattern that can give the user a statistical advantage.  By trading the wedges correctly, you can gain an edge over the market.

There are two types of wedges, rising and falling.  Wedges are a longer term pattern.  I’ve found the longer they build, the more profitable they can be.  In this article, let’s take a look at the rising wedge.  (These are also known as ascending wedges.)

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Let me show you what I mean…

SPX Chart #1

A rising wedge occurs over a period of rising prices.

Take a look at the chart above.  The S&P 500 had been rising for quite a few months.  Looks good, right?  Well yes, you’re doing great if you bought down at the 1,000 level.  But, what if you’re on the sidelines and looking for a low risk trade?

Where is the lowest risk trade with the highest possible reward?

You could go long through the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY).  In this case, you would be looking for further upside in the S&P 500.

But the rising wedge pattern means something…

It means buyers are becoming increasingly exhausted as the market trades higher.  You can see this by comparing the green upper trend line with the red lower trend line.  Notice how they are converging.  The green trend line is rising at a flatter angle than the red trend line.

This gives the advantage to the bears in the short term.

Now, it’s been proven the best long term results come from trading with the trend of the market.  And in this case, the trend is still UP.

But in some scenarios, the reward to risk ratio of going with the trend just aren’t that good.  Once in a while, it pays to go against the grain when the risks are low and the potential reward is high.

And this is exactly what a wedge pattern represents…
 
It’s an opportunity to go against the trend of the market with low risk.  As long as you put a stop loss order above the recent highs, your risk is controlled.

Here’s the current chart of the S&P 500…

SPX Chart #2

As you can see, the S&P 500 has broken down out of the wedge pattern.  Just how far down the S&P will go remains to be seen.

But here’s a general rule of thumb…

Breakdowns from wedge patterns like the one above can retrace at least 75% of the wedge.  Meaning… we could test the 1,060 to 1,040 level on the S&P 500 in the next few weeks.

So be on the lookout for these high reward, low risk patterns.

Just remember, trading is about keeping the risks small and the rewards big.  The wedge pattern gives you the opportunity to do just that.

By the way, in my Technical Trading Alert service we made a very similar trade and subscribers are already showing a profit.  Setups like this can make savvy technical traders good money.

Commodity Watch 

• Gold (Over $1,100 an ounce)

The precious metal is bouncing higher over recent trading sessions.  The technical bounce off of the $1,070 support level coincided with the President releasing the 2010 and 2011 budget.  Both budgets revealed record deficit spending.


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Issue Date:
 Wednesday, February 3, 2010


Notable Highs and Lows

•  CSG Systems (CSGS) hit a 52-week high of over $20.  The satellite and cable communications company recently reported a strong fourth quarter.  Their market cap is now over $700 million.

•  Acme Packet (APKT) hit a new 52-week high of over $13.  The IP technology company was recently upgraded after beating quarterly estimates.  They have a market cap of over $790 million.

•  Acxiom (ACXM) hit a 52-week high of just over $16.  The interactive marketing company beat analyst estimates by $0.03 in a recent earnings release.  Their market cap is now over $1 billion.


Quote of the Day

"No man was ever wise by chance."

                                   -
Seneca

 
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