200% Gains In This Sector
The Dynamic Wealth Report
December 23, 2009
by Justin Bennett, Editor
Trading the biotech industry…
It’s kind of like being a home run hitter in baseball. You’re swinging
for the fences a lot of the time. Maybe you’ll strike out more than
others. But sometimes you’ll hit a home run with the bases loaded in the
bottom of the ninth.
It’s one industry where you can catch unbelievable profits. Sometimes
you’ll get a winning trade that makes the whole trading year worthwhile. The biotech industry is a place where you can invest a relatively small
amount of money and reap an unbelievable windfall.
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Let me show you what I mean…
Take a look at Dendreon (DNDN). In early April, they announced their one
and only product, Provenge, “significantly” prolonged survival in men
with advanced stage prostate cancer. The news caused an explosion in
DNDN shares.
You could have bought DNDN at the first sign of interest on April 3rd. News that day revealed
Provenge was given “late-breaker” status at the
American Urological Association annual conference. This status means
clinical trial results are potentially important. This gave the stock a
nice pop on April 3rd. The large volume day confirmed it.
It was a tip-off for big news to come…
On April 14th, the company revealed their product had positive results in
clinical trials. This is big news because it provides a basis for
potential FDA approval of the drug. The news sent the shares surging up
nearly
200% overnight.
Any good
technical trader would be taking profits on the
morning of the
14th. Gains like this are nothing to shake a stick at.
If you weren’t taking profits that morning, you knew something
fundamental about the company and expected further upside. You
eventually got it as the shares are currently trading around $26. But as
you can see, it was an awfully bumpy ride…
But there’s a problem using pure technical analysis to trade biotech
stocks...
Many of the big moves in biotech stocks are
news driven. This makes
using technical analysis much more challenging. When movement in the
stock is driven by news, it’s much harder to get an edge. You can’t see
the technical shifts in supply and demand.
As you may know, I am a big proponent of having an edge. Without this
statistical advantage, your results may suffer over the long run.
Another challenging aspect to using technical analysis to trade
biotechs is risk control. Using the DNDN example above, the news of the
14th of April could have just as easily been negative. DNDN could have
opened
down 50% the next day. A situation like that makes it hard to
cut your losers short and let your winners run.
Now, I’m not going to say it’s impossible to trade biotechs using only
technical analysis. I’m sure there are traders who do it. But there are
lots of issues making it very challenging.
So what does that mean for biotech traders?
It means you can’t rely on technical analysis alone.
You’ve got to throw in a large dose of fundamental analysis too. You
have to dig up research on drugs in the “pipeline”. You need to look for
companies moving drugs through clinical trials. Researching small
biotech companies ripe for takeover is a good idea as well.
You need to do a lot of research to come up with a tradable conclusion. Your research of the fundamentals is now your edge.
But don’t let that discourage you…
Anyone willing to do in-depth fundamental research
mixed with technical
analysis can reap spectacular results. So don’t shy away from investing
in biotech…. Just make sure you do your fundamental research too!
**Editor's Note** We just finished the second
report in our series on biotech investing in the New Year. You may
have noticed by now that we're
extremely bullish on this
sector for 2010.
The report, called "
How One Stock Can Make You A Millionaire",
details the process Robert Morris uses to find home runs in this
explosive sector.
You can download the PDF for free right here...
• Copper (Over $3.10 a pound)
Copper continues to climb out of the hole created by the financial
meltdown. The metal is widely used in the construction of new homes. With housing numbers looking better, copper is approaching levels not
seen since before the crisis.
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