
Are you an average investor? I hope not. Like lemmings over the
cliff, average investors seem to grab a tight hold onto anything that
has been successful lately. I cite several phenomenon as proof,
the tulip bulb bubble in Holland in the 15th century, the 1929 stock
market crash, the internet bubble of 2001, and finally the current real
estate bubble – which is just now beginning to deflate.
Recently, I have heard a number of investors talking about the latest
craze, investing based on ROI, (Return On Investment). At various
conferences and cocktail parties, in many conversations, I have
overheard a simple description that this style of investing is the new
“miracle”. The only way to win, and . . . . gasp . . . . the style
that Warren Buffett uses to make all of his money! Please don’t
follow the lemmings – they are wrong!
First the problem, ROI is a way to measure your return – you put in $100
and a year later you get back $10 and all of your principal, your return
is 10%. Fairly simple. The problem is that this is not an
investment style. What these investors are really speaking about
is ROIC – Return On Invested Capital. ROI and ROIC are easy to
confuse, but measure very different things.
The ROIC is a simple formula that measures how much money an investor
(you) take out of an investment compared with how much capital is needed
to provide the return. It is a great measure of a company’s
management team, and the company for that matter. It shows how
good the company is at taking an additional dollar and generating an
incremental return for investors on that dollar.
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• Copper (+10% in the last 4 weeks)
Copper has risen steadily over the last 4 weeks, driven in part by the expectations of continued demand out of China. Also contributing to the price rise was a recent 4 day strike at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. It ended after four days, but obviously threatened global copper supplies; prices of course rallied on this news.
• Reuters (RTRSY) rallied 30% last week on news of an unnamed takeover bid.
• Dow Jones (DJ) rose more than 50% last week on news of a takeout offer by News Corp. It hit new 5 year highs, however, the controlling shareholders have decided to pass on the deal (although we think eventually a deal will be made).
• Cray (CRAY) fell more than 28% last week on news that it missed analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings.
| Stock | Size | |
| Motient (MNCP) | $45 | |
| Orexigen (OREX) | $39 | |
| Poniard (DNDN) | $25 | |
| Transcend (PARD) | $24 | |
| American Hompatient (AHOM) | $16 | |
| Stock | Size | |
| Cinemark (CNK) | $1,092 | |
| MetroPCS (PCS) | $676 | |
| AIG (AIG) | $456 | |
| Sunpower (SPWR) | $449 | |
| EV3 (EVVV) | $232 | |