Market Predictions For 2009
The Dynamic Wealth Report
December 22, 2008
Huge Money To Be Made Early Next Year
If you’re like most people 2008 was a rough year. Many have lost a
significant chunk of their net worth. Others have had to postpone
retirement because of the financial meltdown. Millions of homeowners are
now underwater… and sinking fast.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride many want to forget.
Everyone’s feeling the pain. I have more than a few friends who don’t
even open retirement account statements anymore. It’s just too painful.
Enough about the past.
The big question today is: “What does the future hold?”
I’m looking at early 2009 and I see some great ways to make money. Savvy
investors can profit from the huge trends setting up now. So, what
trends am I seeing now? A flat market with continued volatility,
strength in the US Dollar, a falling bond market, and the eventual
resurgence of commodities.
I know some of these seem optimistic, but bear with me and I’ll explain
my thinking.
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First off, the market. We’re down big over the last year. That’s no
surprise. There’s numerous causes include deleveraging from the
financial meltdown, the real estate crisis, and a global recession. None
of this is going away in early ‘09.
We might see optimism, but these are big issues that’ll take time to
resolve.
That’s why the markets will be flat, but very volatile. The markets will
be range bound for several months… a great opportunity for traders.
The financial markets are tied to the banking system. With the
government doing all it can, the banking system appears to be stable.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of banks taken over by
the FDIC in the early part of the year.
The global credit crisis will also impact the markets. The biggest
impact will be on the US Dollar however. Other countries are in the
midst of the global recession. The emerging market economies are nowhere
near as well developed as the US. As a result we’re likely to see these
emerging markets struggle with the recession.
And that means a strong dollar.
Now, I’m not expecting the dollar to be strong forever. It will last
only as long as investors are concerned about the credit crisis and
global economy. Once those issues are in the rearview mirror, I’d expect
the dollar will fall in value (probably near mid-year).
The bond market is another area that’s going to change in ‘09.
Government bond prices are jumping ever higher. It’s the impact of fear
from investors. As demand skyrockets, the price of government bonds goes
up and the yield down. Right now short term maturities are paying just
over 0%...
Yes, you read that right.
You get virtually no return for investing in short term bonds. This
means two things. First, as fear subsides and greed returns, investors
will start buying equities… and selling bonds. Second, anyone who
started 2008 with a nicely balanced stock and bond portfolio are now
seriously out of whack. That means selling bonds and eventually buying
stocks, to balance back out.
That’s why government bond values have only one direction to go… lower.
That leaves us with one last area of concern, commodities.
Everyone knows what happened to oil prices this year… I can still
remember paying $4.00 for a gallon of gas. Now, the fear of a global
slowdown is pushing oil prices lower. Everyone’s consuming less oil,
even China. As the recession spreads and deepens, oil consumption will
fall even further.
With supply cuts, I see oil prices remaining volatile. However, oil will
be relatively range bound for the first part of the year.
Once the credit crisis and the recession appear to be improving, we’ll
see the markets loosen up a bit. I’m watching oil consumption in China
closely. The Chinese have been cutting back on oil consumption. When
that trend reverses, it’s a big sign oil prices will be heading higher.
So that’s a quick rundown of what to watch for in early 2009.
Now your question should be “How do I profit from these trends?” That’s
the easy part… Just keep reading the Dynamic Wealth Report. We’ll cover
all of these topics and many more in greater detail all throughout 2009. Till then, have a happy holiday from your friends at Hyperion Financial
Group.
• Railroads (Down 3.8%)
After being a top performer earlier in the year, railroads have been hit
hard by the recession. In the last month, the industry is down more than
3%. The trend lower is being lead by Union Pacific (UNP) and
Kansas City
Southern (KSU).
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