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Technical Analysis

The Dynamic Wealth Report
November 26, 2008

How Traders Made A Fortune From Citigroup's Collapse


Are you staring at your stock portfolio wondering what to do?  Ever wish for a simple signal that you should buy a stock?  Are you confused about when to sell an investment?  If so, you’re not alone.

What you’re seeking is the holy grail of stock investing.  While no system’s perfect, I like to use technical analysis.  I believe it can make you a better trader…

Don’t believe me?  Check this out.

Back in June I recommended a trade to my Currency Options Insider subscribers.  The Yen had recently traded below the $95 level.  It was looking weak, and when combined with basic fundamental analysis I knew it would be heading lower.

I suggested put options which would profit only when the Yen moved lower against the U.S. Dollar.  I identified a support line right at the $92.50 level.  Sure enough the Yen traded down to the support level not once, but twice in the next two months!

Traders who used the support line as an exit point were very happy.  In the first 10 days traders could have captured a maximum gain of 140%.

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Some investors sell stocks on gut instinct… I like to have a system.

Every good trade starts with good analysis.  For me, that means two things, detailed fundamental analysis, and rigorous technical analysis.

What’s fundamental analysis?  It’s when you look at the details surrounding a specific security.  In the case of stocks you might look at revenue growth, margins, earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet strength.  You also analyze new products, market share, and product life cycles.  The analysis might even look at the management team and ownership structure.

I could go on for three more pages about fundamental analysis… let’s just say it’s extensive and detailed.

Technical analysis is a totally different animal.

All technical analysis measures is price action.  That’s it.  It’s just looking at where buyers snap up shares and where sellers dump them on the market.  Once you identify an area where buyers overwhelm sellers you’ve found a support level.  Resistance is where sellers far outnumber buyers.

Technical analysis (especially support and resistance) is a great tool to determine entry and exit points.  Now, keep in mind there’s lots of other parts to technical analysis.  Unfortunately, I just don’t have the space to describe them all here.

Now here’s a little secret profitable traders know.

Once a security breaks a support or resistance line it often continues to move in that direction.

Just take a look at Citigroup (C).  In 2006 Citigroup put in a low of 39.50… that’s the blue horizontal line on the chart.  It’s a perfect example of a support line.  You’ll notice as the stock collapsed in late 2007 it briefly paused right at the support level.

Citigroup (C)

Once the stock broke through support it was all over.  Traders using technical analysis either sold their stock or established a short position. Think about how much money you could have saved… think about how much you could have made.

Using this simple technique traders not only look smart, but can become very, very wealthy.

Editor’s Note:  Greg, Brian and the rest of the team at Hyperion Financial Group wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving.  Eat, drink, and be merry!


Sectors On The Move 

• Wheat ($5.37 per bushel)

Since mid-October, the price of wheat has traded between $5 and $5.50 a bushel.  Keeping prices range bound was news from South Africa. Wheat production would be down slightly when compared to last year's harvest.  However this news was offset by data from Argentina showing over 1.7 million tons of wheat still available from the 2007-08 crop.


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Issue Date:
 Wednesday, November 26, 2008


Notable Highs and Lows

•  Rio Tinto (RTP) hit a new 52-week low of just over $97.  BHP pulled their offer to buy the company, and the stock price fell dramatically.  Their market cap is just over $35 billion.

•  Zale (ZLC) hit a new 52-week low of just over $5.  Facing a tough retail market this Christmas the jewelry store recently removed its forecasts.  Their market cap is $200 million.

•  Ticketmaster (TKTM) is trading near its 52-week low of just over $3. Their market cap is now over $400 million.


Quote of the Day

"Major bottoms are usually made when analysts cut their earnings estimates and companies report earnings which are below expectations."

                     -Edward Babbitt, Jr.

 

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