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China Stock Market - China's Fever Rising

The Dynamic Wealth Report
May 11, 2007

Shanghai 1930
by Brian T Mikes, Managing Editor

In 1930 Shanghai was regarded as the Paris of the Orient.  Rich and poor alike flocked to the city to participate in its beauty, excitement, and economic prosperity.

These days millions are flocking to Shanghai but for very different reasons, the stock market.  I’ve been watching the international markets for some time, and just a few days ago I noticed that the Shanghai Index was nearing a mythical 4,000 mark.

Now, in general, I support markets moving upwards but this is getting frightening.  A few quick facts to put the fear of China into you as well:

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Are you shaking your head and wondering how you can short this market yet?

I truly believe a robust market is nothing to fear, but I feel like this is getting out of hand.  The feeling is so similar to the NASDAQ in 1999 & 2000, I started having flashbacks.  Everyone and their mother had a trading account and a hot stock tip, and it seemed like everyone was making fortunes off moves in the market.

A major concern crosses my mind with this emerging market.  China is nowhere near as advanced in its methods and regulations surrounding the stock markets.  Let me give you one simple example - investors in the US can easily bet against the market, or sell short.  This simple act prevents markets from running to the upside and provides a counterbalance to trading.  Yet this necessary constraint is not yet developed in the China markets.

Stock index futures, the Wall Street Journal pointed out, are expected to be introduced in the next few weeks.  They will initially be tightly regulated, but none the less, it will be a way for investors to bet against the continued trend upward in the market . . . and at some point they may become a self fulfilling prophesy.

Apparently, I’m not the only person concerned about the markets.  The Chinese market itself has started increasing minimum margin levels and limiting contract purchases for individuals.  Hold on to your hats, a rollercoaster ride is not too far away.

Notable Rating Changes

•  The energy market continued to push higher this week on a series of upgrades from investment banks including: Reliant Energy (RRI) by Citigroup and Matrix Research, Integrys Energy (TEG) by JP Morgan, Eagle Rock Energy (EROC) by Wachovia and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) that was upgraded from a sell by WR Hambrecht.

•  Amgen (AMGN) was downgraded by, it seems, every living research analyst on the planet this week.  Of course, this was all AFTER the FDA announced the call for further restrictions on the use of anemia drugs by both Amgen and J&J.


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Issue Date:
 Friday, May 11, 2007


Notable Highs and Lows

•  Whole Foods (WFMI) sunk 10% falling through its 50 day moving average after announcing disappointing earnings.

•  Dendreon (DNDN) investors were slaughtered yesterday on bad news about the company’s prostate cancer drug license.  Off more than 64% the stock traded as low as $6.33. 


Quote of the Day

"Humor is reason gone mad."
                            -
Groucho Marx



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Company Gain
Transcend Services (TRCR) 346%
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Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) 215%



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Company Loss
Novastar Financial (NFI) -76%
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Neurochem (NRMX) -68%



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