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Gold:  Zoellick Seeks Gold Standard Debate


The Dynamic Wealth Report
November 12, 2010

by Robert Morris, Editor

World Bank President, Robert Zoellick, stirred up a hornet’s nest this week ahead of the G-20 summit.

It all started with an op-ed piece Zoellick penned for the Sunday Financial Times.  In the article, the former managing director of Goldman Sachs and Deputy Secretary of State proposed gold play a role in any new global reserve currency that might replace the U.S. Dollar.

But before the ink was even dry, a number of commentators had seized on Zoellick’s words as a clarion call for a return to the gold standard.  Fans of the gold standard praised Zoellick as a hero.  Opponents labeled Zoellick as the “stupidest man alive”.

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Gold bugs read Zoellick’s comments a different way… they saw a reason for gold prices to skyrocket.

Think about it for a moment.  If gold becomes the standard for currency valuations, central banks around the world will have to increase their gold stockpiles.  This huge uptick in demand can only do one thing… drive gold prices dramatically higher.

But Zoellick wasn’t saying we should return to the gold standard.

Here’s the quote that has everyone fired up…
“The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”
When taken out of context like this, you can see how the words are easily manipulated.  They’re just vague enough for a savvy commentator to claim they call for a return to the gold standard.  But when read in context, the true meaning becomes clear.

Here’s what I mean…

In the op-ed piece, Zoellick painted his vision of the future global exchange system.  He doesn’t see the U.S. Dollar continuing as the sole reserve currency.  Instead, he sees a system where the dollar, euro, pound, yen, and in time, the renminbi are all reserve currencies.

Then Zoellick focused on the fact investors are treating gold as an alternative monetary asset.

He argued if investors see gold as a monetary asset, then gold should be used as a “reference point” when setting global exchange rates.  More importantly, he urged major nations to use gold as an indicator of public opinion about their monetary policies.

Zoellick tried to put the whole matter to rest on Wednesday.

When asked if he was advocating a return to the gold standard, Zoellick replied, “I don’t believe you can return to a fixed exchange rate system and that is the gold standard.  I’m not advocating a return to the 19th century when money supply was linked to gold.”

And for good reason…

He knows it would never fly.  No major government has any desire to return to a pure gold standard.  When currency exchange is fixed, governments are unable to influence their economies through currency manipulation.

And governments definitely don’t want to give up their main weapons for addressing economic instability.

So, if you’re counting on a return to the gold standard to drive gold prices higher, you’re going to be sadly disappointed.  However, there are plenty of other reasons why gold prices are likely to keep rising.  And having gold in your portfolio still makes a lot of sense.

Just don’t expect central banks to adopt the gold standard and send gold prices skyrocketing.

***Editor’s Note***  Remember a few months ago when we were telling you to get into the energy sector?  Well those stocks have absolutely soared over the last 8 weeks as oil has hit a 25 month high.
 
So how have our recommendations done?  Uranerz (URZ) is up 142%, Puda Coal (PUDA) is up 76%, Cheniere (LNG) is up 62%, and GMX Resources (GMXR) is up 30%.  All within about 2 months!

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Notable Rating Changes

•  NuVasive (NUVA) was upgraded by Boenning & Scattergood from Neutral to Outperform.  The selloff after management lowered revenue and earnings guidance has pushed the shares into oversold territory.  The analyst has a $30 price target.

•  Barclays downgraded Dollar Tree (DLTR) to Equal Weight.  They say the shares are already pricing in a strong earnings report coming next week.  The analyst has a $53 price target.

•  Robert W. Baird started coverage on Williams-Sonoma (WSM) with an Outperform rating.  They say the company is leveraged to secular growth trends in e-commerce and can expand their margins.  The analyst set a price target of $42.


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Issue Date:
 Friday, November 12, 2010


Notable Highs and Lows

•  Microsemi (MSCC) set a new 52-week high of $22.79.  The chip maker’s jumping more than 9% after beating estimates and boosting guidance for next quarter.  Their market cap is just under $1.9 billion.

•  Dillard's (DDS) hit a new 52-week high of $32.52.  The department store operator’s soaring over 15% after doubling analysts’ third quarter earnings estimates.  They have a market cap of over $2 billion.

•  DynaVox (DVOX) fell to a 52-week low of $4.45.  The maker of products for persons with language or learning disabilities is plunging more than 20% after posting an unexpected quarterly loss.  Their market cap is just over $43 million.


Quote of the Day

"A person without a sense of humor is like a wagon without springs.  It’s jolted by every pebble on the road."

                      -
Henry Ward Beecher

 
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Company Gain
BroadSoft (BSFT) 86%
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