
The Dynamic Wealth Report
December 5, 2007
How Diesel Prices Are Affecting Your Investments
Additional fuel costs need to be passed along to someone and that
someone is you and me.
The prices of diesel really started creating a stir in 2005 when it
passed $2.30 a gallon. Some in the industry viewed this as a critical
point where many truckers start to lose money. Truckers traditionally
measure their profits in pennies per mile driven and cutting costs is
the only way to survive. Nowadays diesel prices are topping $3.50 a
gallon and profits in the industry are hard to find.
Clearly, making a living from trucking is very difficult. While rising
prices can sometimes be passed along to customers, the volatility of
that price increase is not always perfect. A few months back, many large
consumers of fuel started adding surcharges to their invoices. Everyone
from cruise lines to airlines to global transportation companies are
doing it now.
Yet, as you might have guessed, there is a problem.
Those that stick their customer with a fuel surcharge are sometimes
still losing money. Diesel prices have been moving up so quickly, 18%
since September alone, that the fuel surcharge is not covering the
actual cost. This problem has been exposed most significantly in the
companies that make up part of the Dow Jones Transportation index.
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The iShares Dow Jones Transportation Index (IYT) hit a new 52-week low
just a few days ago. This index is made up of companies like
FedEx
(FDX), United Parcel Service (UPS), Norfolk Southern
(NSC), Overseas Shipholding (OSG), and Ryder (R). You will notice something very
interesting in the index; shipping and rail transportation companies are
doing very well, while the trucking companies are continuing to
struggle.
As the cost of trucking rises I believe companies with large quantities of
goods to ship will look to other options. Shipping and rail are the most
likely choices. If you are going to invest in transportation companies I
would stay away from those with large exposure to diesel and look to
trucking alternatives like shippers and rail companies.
Another way to play this situation is through the use of puts. If
you anticipate diesel prices to continue to rise, as I do, you may look
to establish puts on some of the companies with the greatest exposure to
these fuel price increases.
• Wheat ($8.75 Per Bushel)
Back in September, we mentioned the potential constraints to wheat supply. This week some of those issues have been impacting prices. In Australia the drought has limited wheat supplies. To add to the pain, Argentina had a recent frost which may have damaged wheat crops. The price of wheat spiked on this news.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) reached a new 52-week high of $146,900 per share. Warren Buffett continues to work his magic making more and more money for his shareholders.
• Consumer goods companies like Proctor & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) all reached new 52-week highs this week. Concerns over a potential economic slowdown have pushed investors towards safe haven stocks.

| Sector | Gain | |
| Long Distance Carriers | 26% | |
| Discount Variety Stores | 18% | |
| Healthcare Plans | 17% | |
| Hospitals | 16% | |
| Cigarettes | 15% | |
| Sector | Loss | |
| Manufactured Housing | 43% | |
| Printed Circuit Boards | 38% | |
| Aluminum | 37% | |
| Copper | 34% | |
| Residential Construction | 32% | |