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Big Bucks From A Broken Chart...


The Dynamic Wealth Report
August 9, 2010

by Brian T Mikes, Editor

Ever hear the phrase “like two peas in a pod”?  Of course you have.  It’s referring to two things (or people) who work hand in hand.

If you take thirty seconds, you’ll no doubt think of a few examples… how about coffee & cream, Laverne & Shirley (I’m dating myself a bit), or peanut butter & jelly.  Even better… milk & cookies.

See what I mean.  Some things naturally go hand in hand.

It’s a surprise when you see one without the other.  Can you imagine a chocolate chip cookie (my mom’s are the best) without milk?

Of course not.

A warm chocolate chip cookie fresh from the oven is great… nobody’s going to argue… but a tall ice cold glass of milk makes it even better! When one is missing, it can be quite a surprise.

Sometimes you see the same thing in the stock market.

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For example, take a look at this chart.

Oil vs. DO Chart

You can imagine my surprise when I looked at a chart and noticed something strange was happening… I thought the chart was broken!

I double checked my data.  I reran the numbers.  Sure enough, the chart was right…

Notice how closely these two graphs matched each other?  This is a pair meant to go together… like peanut butter & jelly.  But recently they’ve started splitting apart.

What’s going on here?

I dug a little deeper… and I found the answer.

The graph, as you’ve probably figured out, charts the price of oil and Diamond Offshore (DO).  Diamond is an offshore drilling contractor.  They have 47 offshore rigs to drill oil and gas wells.  One of their largest customers is Petrobras, the giant Brazilian oil company.

Customers hire Diamond to drill oil and natural gas wells… so it stands to reason as oil prices move higher, the demand for drilling services increases.  This of course causes the stock price to move higher.

It’s amazing… like clockwork, as oil prices went up, Diamond’s stock went up.  And as oil prices fell, the stock fell too.

So why the recent divergence?  Why did the prices start coming apart just a few months ago?

The answer is simple… and I can explain it in a word (or more appropriately two letters), “BP”.  If you look at the chart, the separation started right around the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  Clearly the talk of moratoriums and limitations on offshore drilling put a damper on the stock.

Despite the upward movement of oil prices, Diamond’s stock is stuck.

But I don’t expect it to last long.

First off, it looks like BP has plugged the well… thank goodness.  The cleanup is underway.  And the media blitz out of BP about their efforts can’t hurt either.  Once this spill is in our rearview mirror, I’m expecting Diamond’s stock to start moving higher.

But that’s not the only reason.

Don’t forget, Diamond drills wells all over the world.  If the Gulf region was declared “off limits” permanently (highly unlikely in my mind), they’d simply move their drilling equipment elsewhere.  They can move down to Brazil or off the coast of England.  The Middle East is another option and so is Indonesia.  There’s no lack of places to drill for oil and gas.

Long term the actions of the US government, while painful, are far from devastating.

Let me make one more point.

Oil prices are going to increase.  It’s a simple fact.  Just look at the demand for energy coming out of China and other emerging markets.  Don’t ignore calls of $150 or $200 barrels of oil… it’s going to happen and it’s probably not far off.

Take another look at the “broken” chart.  Before long, investors will realize Diamond’s stock has been unfairly punished.  Sooner rather than later, we’ll see it moving higher, right along with the price of oil.

***Editor’s Note***  It’s no secret that the role of energy is going to expand exponentially in the world’s affairs over the next few years.  With everything that’s happening in the Middle East, with offshore drilling and the race to find alternative fuels, it stands to reason that the energy sector could be THE place to invest over the foreseeable future.  And to help you capitalize on this movement, we’re going to be launching a new investment service that focuses specifically on this dynamic sector.  Keep an eye on your inbox for a series of FREE reports we’re writing about this timely opportunity…

Sectors On The Move 

•  Coal Industry (Up 20%)

The coal industry is seeing a resurgence.  Growing expectations of economic activity are driving investors into areas poised for a rebound. We’ll see more electrical demand in the coming months… and that means more demand for coal.  The industry’s being lead higher by companies like L&L Energy (LLEN) and Hallador Energy (HNRG).


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Issue Date:
 Monday, August 9, 2010


Notable Highs and Lows

•  Altria Group (MO) hit a 52-week high of just over $22.  The cigarette manufacturer recently sold $200 million of notes.  They now have a market cap of just over $46 billion.

•  CMS Energy (CMS) hit a new 52-week high of over $16.  The company recently bumped up their dividend payout.  They now have a market cap of just over $3.8 billion.

•  Herbalife (HLF) hit a new 52-week high of just over $55.  They too increased the dividend payout this week.  They now have a market cap of just over $3.3 billion.


Quote of the Day

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                           -
David McCullough

 
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