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Don't Invest in Fuel Cell Stocks

The Dynamic Wealth Report
May 21, 2008

Avoid These Alternative Energy Companies Like The Plague


Oil’s at record levels.  The value of companies even remotely tied to the energy industry are rocketing skyward.  The federal government’s even getting in on the action.  They’re grilling oil company executives as I write this.  Oil’s now over $130 a barrel.  It’s going higher.  Just wait and see.

The supply and demand fundamentals are out of line.  I don’t see this correcting anytime soon.  While you and I are suffering from sticker shock at the gas pump, some people are smiling all the way to the bank. It’s easy to identify groups profiting from high oil . . . the top of my list includes alternative energy companies.

I should know.

I was an investment banker in my prior career.  Many long time readers don’t realize that my area of focus was alternative energy.  As a banker I got to see some really cool technology.  I toured solar cell manufacturing plants and biodiesel facilities.  I met with ethanol companies and interviewed cellulosic ethanol researchers.  I advised fuel cell manufacturers, and reviewed wind turbine companies.  I even spent a good bit of time looking at geothermal.

To say I learned a lot is an understatement.

I learned things that most experienced investors never imagine.  I was on the inside.  I sat with CEOs and CFOs.  I discussed their trial and tribulations.  I dined with board members.  I rubbed elbows with the Venture Capitalists.  Best of all, I got to witness the huge upside potential alternative energy holds.  The upside always excited me.

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For better or worse I’m biased towards alternative energy.  I’ve seen firsthand the damage pollution from fossil fuel can cause.  I truly believe alternative energy will eventually play an important role in our lives and our economy.

With oil prices as high as they are, alternative energy solutions are becoming more cost effective.

I’m sure every person on the planet is looking at oil and trying to find a solution.  Some alternative energy ideas are practical, but most aren’t.  It doesn’t matter.  Everything is being thrown against the wall to see what sticks.

I can tell you one technology that won’t. . . fuel cells.

At the beginning of our new century, fuel cells were tremendously popular.  Just a few short years ago a number of fuel cell companies went public.  Their valuations were massive.  They were the next internet.  They would replace power plants all over the world. But the question started being asked . . . Where’s all of the hydrogen going to come from?

First a bit of a background.

Fuel cells are miracles of energy production.  If you feed them a stream of hydrogen they produce electricity and water as a byproduct.  How they do that is not important.  What’s amazing is that the size of these cells can vary greatly.  They can be used in small portable devices like your cell phone or lap top, and they can be scaled to supply energy to entire buildings.

The problem’s that they’re hugely inefficient, expensive, and extremely fragile.  It’ll be years, maybe decades, before these problems are corrected.  And it may be even longer before they become widely used.

The problem with fuel cells.

So what is the problem?  Well, how do we make all of the hydrogen? Hydrogen will be the fuel that eventually runs this new power technology.  Most people don’t realize hydrogen’s currently made from natural gas and oil.  Amazing isn’t it!

In our effort to eliminate the influence of the Middle East we might just do the opposite.  But there is a solution.  Generate hydrogen from nuclear power.  Nuclear energy’s an amazingly clean form of energy production.  Some are even labeling it the next “Green” energy supply. But building nuclear power plants takes years.  Clearly nuclear energy is a topic for another article.

Back to fuel cells.

There are three large companies traded on the US markets.  These three companies define the fuel cell industry.  Ballard Power (BLDP), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), and Plug Power (PLUG).  I’d avoid these companies like the plague.  They’re huge black holes when it comes to money. Invest in other alternative energy companies.  You’ll do much better with companies focused on solar, wind, or geothermal.  You’ll thank me later.

Commodity Watch 

• Live Cattle ($0.93 per lb)

After peaking at over $1.00 per pound in early 2007, cattle prices have remained relatively range bound.  The prices have fluctuated between $0.85 and $0.95. It’s strange that cattle is so stable given that corn prices . . . something cattle eat a lot of . . .have been skyrocketing.


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Issue Date:
 Wednesday, May 21, 2008


Notable Highs and Lows

 Exelon (EXC) hit a new 52-week high of over $89.  The price rallied after Credit Suisse upgraded several utilities.  The company now has a market cap of over $58 billion.

US Steel (X) hit another 52-week high of over $185.  The company now has a market cap over $21 billion.

American Airlines (AMR) hit a 52-week low of just over $6.  The airline is suffering from increasing fuel costs. Just today they announced a cut in capacity and new fees.  Their market cap is just over $1.5 billion.


Quote of the Day

"Better to pay a fair price for a good company than a cheap price for a looser."

                       - Wall Street Saying


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