Don't Invest in Fuel Cell Stocks
The Dynamic Wealth Report
May 21, 2008
Avoid These Alternative Energy Companies Like
The Plague
Oil’s at record levels. The
value of companies even remotely tied to
the energy industry are rocketing skyward. The federal government’s even
getting in on the action. They’re grilling oil company executives as I
write this. Oil’s now over $130 a barrel. It’s going higher. Just wait
and see.
The supply and demand fundamentals are out of line. I don’t see this
correcting anytime soon. While you and I are suffering from sticker
shock at the gas pump, some people are smiling all the way to the bank.
It’s easy to identify groups profiting from high oil . . . the top of my
list includes alternative energy companies.
I should know.
I was an investment banker in my prior career. Many long time readers
don’t realize that my area of focus was alternative energy. As a banker
I got to see some really cool technology. I toured solar cell
manufacturing plants and biodiesel facilities. I met with ethanol
companies and interviewed cellulosic ethanol researchers. I advised fuel
cell manufacturers, and reviewed wind turbine companies. I even spent a
good bit of time looking at geothermal.
To say I learned a lot is an understatement.
I learned things that most experienced investors never imagine. I was on
the inside. I sat with CEOs and CFOs. I discussed their trial and
tribulations. I dined with board members. I rubbed elbows with the
Venture Capitalists. Best of all, I got to witness the huge upside
potential alternative energy holds. The upside always excited me.
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For better or worse I’m biased towards alternative energy. I’ve seen
firsthand the damage pollution from fossil fuel can cause. I truly
believe alternative energy will eventually play an important role in our
lives and our economy.
With oil prices as high as they are, alternative energy solutions are
becoming more cost effective.
I’m sure every person on the planet is looking at oil and trying to find
a solution. Some alternative energy ideas are practical, but most
aren’t. It doesn’t matter. Everything is being thrown against the wall
to see what sticks.
I can tell you one technology that won’t. . . fuel cells.
At the beginning of our new century, fuel cells were tremendously
popular. Just a few short years ago a number of fuel cell companies went
public. Their valuations were massive. They were the next internet. They
would replace power plants all over the world. But the question started
being asked . . . Where’s all of the hydrogen going to come from?
First a bit of a background.
Fuel cells are miracles of energy production. If you feed them a stream
of hydrogen they produce electricity and water as a byproduct. How they
do that is not important. What’s amazing is that the size of these cells
can vary greatly. They can be used in small portable devices like your
cell phone or lap top, and they can be scaled to supply energy to entire
buildings.
The problem’s that they’re hugely inefficient, expensive, and extremely
fragile. It’ll be years, maybe decades, before these problems are
corrected. And it may be even longer before they become widely used.
The problem with fuel cells.
So what is the problem? Well, how do we make all of the hydrogen?
Hydrogen will be the fuel that eventually runs this new power
technology. Most people don’t realize hydrogen’s currently made from
natural gas and oil. Amazing isn’t it!
In our effort to eliminate the influence of the Middle East we might
just do the opposite. But there is a solution. Generate hydrogen from
nuclear power. Nuclear energy’s an amazingly clean form of energy
production. Some are even labeling it the next “Green” energy supply.
But building nuclear power plants takes years. Clearly nuclear energy is
a topic for another article.
Back to fuel cells.
There are three large companies traded on the US markets. These three
companies define the fuel cell industry. Ballard Power (BLDP),
FuelCell
Energy (FCEL), and Plug Power (PLUG). I’d avoid these
companies like the
plague. They’re huge black holes when it comes to money. Invest in other
alternative energy companies. You’ll do much better with companies focused
on solar, wind, or geothermal. You’ll thank me later.
• Live Cattle ($0.93 per
lb)
After peaking at over $1.00 per pound in early 2007, cattle prices have
remained relatively range bound. The prices have fluctuated between
$0.85 and $0.95. It’s strange that cattle is
so stable given that corn prices . . . something cattle eat a lot of . .
.have been skyrocketing.
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