Use Leveraged ETFs To Boost Your Investing
Returns
The Dynamic Wealth Report
August 7, 2009
Leveraged ETFs - Stupid Investors Need Not Apply
by Corey Williams, Editor
I’m sick and tired of all bad press about leveraged ETFs. I’ll
admit it. I’m mad.
It all came to a head last weekend when I met a friend for drinks.
After discussing baseball and the upcoming football season (it can’t get
here fast enough), our conversation eventually turned to the markets (as it
often does).
Nathan asked, “What’s your take on leveraged ETFs, I’ve heard they’re a
no win investment?”
He couldn’t have been more wrong. But I don’t blame him for his
perception. It seems like the main stream financial media runs a story
on problems with leveraged ETFs daily. I know the Wall Street Journal
does! Despite their naysayers, I think they’re a great tool if you know
how to use them. (I’ll tell you how I use them in a minute.)
I’m sure you’ve seen the arguments.
The main point of contention is investors didn’t (and apparently can’t)
read the fund’s prospectus. The leveraged ETFs deliver 2 (200%) or 3
(300%) times the return of the underlying index each day.
Holding them for longer than one day can result in a tracking error with
the underlying index. That’s just a way to say the ETF’s returns didn’t
amount to 200% or 300% of the underlying index over time frames longer
than one day.
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Sometimes this can hurt an investor. But sometime it can help. However,
you wouldn’t know it if all you did was read the main stream press.
Here’s a perfect example of a leveraged fund delivering greater than the
200% promised.
The Powershares QQQ ETF (QQQQ), better known as the Q’s, tracks the
NASDAQ-100. So far in 2009, the Q’s are up 33%. Take a look at the chart.
The leveraged ETF tracking the NASDAQ-100 is the
Proshares Ultra QQQ
(QLD). It’s up 69% in 2009. Here’s the chart.
And the story gets even better if you compare the two from the March
low. The Q’s are up 56% and QLD is up a whopping 136%! Clearly the
leveraged ETF is delivering more than 200%.
Leveraged ETFs magnify returns. It makes them an important part of my
investment strategy. Here’s how I’ve had success using them.
I use a three step process to identify good opportunities to use a
leveraged ETF.
I start off by looking at the overall trend of the market.
Only use
leveraged ETFs to trade in the same direction as the overall trend in
the market.
For example, if the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are both in an uptrend, I’ll only
use leveraged ETFs that go up when the market goes up. The opposite is
true if the market is in a downtrend. I’ll only use short leveraged ETFs
that go up when the market goes down. And if there isn’t a trend in the
overall market, I don’t like to use leveraged ETFs.
Once the trend’s been determined, the next step is
identifying a good
entry point.
You can use any number of technical indicators to pin point a good entry
point. I’ve had the best success buying pullbacks to support after a
breakout above resistance. One support level I use is the 10-day
moving average.
After you’ve identified an entry point and opened the position,
always
use a trailing stop.
The reasoning is simple. These are trades, not long term investments. Not
every setup is going to work out as planned. You need a plan to lock in
profits and to limit losses. It saves your trading capital in situations
where your trade doesn’t go as planned.
The final step is to exit your trade.
Don’t hold these leveraged ETFs
forever. I’m normally out of the trade in less than a week.
One final piece of advice, when you’re trading, don’t make the mistake of
falling in love with a certain investment. The market is always right. Be prepared to cut bait and move on if the market is telling you “you’re
wrong”.
This process has produced more than its share of winners.
In the end, don’t let the naysayers and pessimists prevent you from
making money. They’ll point to a few extreme examples as proof leveraged
ETFs don’t work. We know better. Used correctly, they can be an extremely
profitable way to increase your returns. You just need to make sure you
understand what you’re buying and always have a plan.
• Crocks (CROX) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray this
week. It’s now rated "Overweight" with a $7.50 price target. Plastic shoes
are making a comeback. The company reported they’ll return to
profitability in 2010.
• Kraft Foods (KFT) was upgraded to an “Outperform”
rating by Credit Suisse. They think the company is well positioned to
increase their profits as the economy recovers and consumer spending
picks up.
• Stifel Nicolaus started coverage on Hewlett-Packard
(HPQ) this week with a "Buy" rating. The analyst sees strong growth in all
aspects of HP’s business over the next year.
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